BOF 000 FGUS71 KCAR 052112 ESFCAR MEZ001>006-010-011-029>032-192300- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 400 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010 ...WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2010...ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO ADDRESS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD MARCH 5, THROUGH MARCH 19, 2010. THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT, RUNOFF AND ICE JAMS IS NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING NORTHERN MAINE'S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WINTER REMAINS IN PLACE AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY PUT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS PATTERN...WHICH CONSISTS OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF GREENLAND AND LABRADOR COMBINED WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET STREAM. THESE CONDITIONS CAUSE THE U.S. STORM TRACK TO SHIFT SOUTH...HOLDING MOST STORMS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER...HAVE PUSHED BACK AGAINST THIS BLOCKING PATTERN OF LATE...WITH SOME RECORD RAIN...HEAVY SNOW AND FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW ENGLAND. THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG STORM AFFECTING NORTHERN MAINE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS LOW...BUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SUCH THAT...SHOULD AN EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG STORM MOVE INTO THE REGION...FLOODING WOULD CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY. THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN DRY NORTH...AND WET SOUTH DUE TO LAST WEEK'S STORM...AND WARM OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD INDICATE THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST...WITH A SHIFT FROM BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOWARD NORMAL. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN MAY BE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN MARCH. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT... ...SNOW DEPTH... SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 24 OR 30 INCHES WEST OF STATE ROUTE 11 TO JUST PATCHY SNOW...OR AN INCH OR TWO...DOWNEAST. EAST OF ROUTE 11... NORTH OF HOULTON ALONG U.S. ROUTE 1...EXPOSED AREAS ARE PATCHY. AREAS FROM HOWLAND TO BANGOR AND SOUTH ON I-95 ARE BASICALLY SNOW FREE. THE REAL STORY IS THE RENEWED SNOW PACK IN THE WEST. MANY HEADWATER LOCATIONS PICKED UP SIGNIFICANT SNOW...AS MUCH 18 TO 20 INCHES ALONG THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. ...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT... SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 6 OR 7 INCHES IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE SAINT JOHN...TO 5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE AROOSTOOK...PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS...WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN USING STATE ROUTE 11 AS A DELINEATION...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL EAST. OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE FROM THE MAINE COOPERATIVE SNOW SURVEY AT HTTP://WWW.MAINE.GOV/RFAC. A CURRENT SNOW ANALYSIS IS AVAILABLE FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER AT HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV. ...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS... STORAGE IN THE TWO MAJOR NORTHERN MAINE STORAGE BASINS...THE PENOBSCOT WATERSHED AND THE ST. CROIX RIVER WATERSHED...WERE 55 AND 60 PERCENT OF CAPACITY RESPECTIVELY. GROUND WATER LEVELS AT THE REGION'S WATER MONITORING STATIONS WERE BELOW NORMAL AT PRESQUE ISLE AND NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. REAL-TIME GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS ARE AVAILABLE THROUGH THE USGS MAINE WATER SCIENCE CENTER'S WEB SITE AT HTTP://ME.WATER.USGS.GOV. THE PALMER INDEX AND A SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATE VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... MANY AREA STREAM GAUGES FROM GRINDSTONE SOUTH CONTINUED TO REPORT OPEN WATER CONDITIONS. ICE AFFECTED CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED NORTH OF GRINDSTONE. ICE MEASUREMENTS...WHERE AVAILABLE...RANGED FROM 1.5 FEET IN THE NORTH...TO JUST SCATTERED SHORE ICE IN THE SOUTH. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT...OWING TO THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES...RIVER FLOWS WERE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP RIVER ICE TO A MINIMUM. ALSO...MANY...IF NOT MOST OR ALL...OF THE SMALL BROOKS AND STREAMS THAT FEED INTO THE MAINSTEM RIVERS...ARE OBSERVED TO BE ICE FREE AN FLOWING HIGH...EVEN IN THE NORTH. ...IN CONCLUSION... BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT, RUNOFF AND ICE JAMS IS NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE SNOW PACK AND RIVER ICE ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH FOLKS LIVING IN THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS MAY PERCEIVE A LACK OF SNOW...THE HEADWATERS SNOW PACK IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS AND SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED. THE CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK...MEANING THERE ARE NO BIG STORMS FORECAST FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN THE HAVOC THAT CAN BE ISSUED UPON AN AREA SHOULD A STORM STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK OUT OF THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN MAKE IT'S WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. COMBINE THIS IMAGE WITH THE FACT THAT THE RECENT WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE SHOWING SIGNS SHIFTING...AND REALIZE THAT WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET. REMEMBER...RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING. THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE ON OR ABOUT MARCH 19TH. $$ MAT EOF